Prediction of Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Sonego at BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm 10-14-25

• Lorenzo Sonego exhibits slightly better performance on second serve points, winning 48.88% compared to Arthur Fery's 46.52%.
• In terms of return games, Arthur Fery edges out with a higher success rate on both first and second serve returns, registering 25.89% and 44.40%, respectively, compared to Sonego's 23.24% and 42.80%.
• Could the ability to handle pressure be a deciding factor? Sonego has shown greater resilience under pressure, saving 57.37% of breakpoints, while Fery trails at 52.74%.
• Examining overall match performance over the past year, Arthur Fery boasts a significant advantage with an 80.49% win rate, while Sonego lags behind at 43.14%.
• Analyzing surface preferences: Sonego performs best on clay with a 59% win rate, whereas Fery excels on indoor hard courts, also with a 59% win rate. How might these statistics play into the predicted outcome?
• Player level insights reveal Sonego competing primarily on the Main tour, winning 36% of those matches, whereas Fery frequently participates in Challengers/ITF tournaments, achieving a solid 76.92% win record.
• How might opponent quality influence match predictions? Over the past year, Sonego has faced tougher competition, battling players averaging a rank of 70.96, while Fery's opponents averaged a rank of 327.41.
• If the encounter results in a deciding set, Fery holds a slight advantage, having won 54% of such matches compared to Sonego's 41% success rate.

Editorial Prediction (October 12, 2025, UTC):

Lorenzo Sonego's experience on the Main tour and his slightly stronger second serve and breakpoint save percentages suggest a solid standing. However, his recent lower match win percentage and softer return game statistics pose concerns.

Arthur Fery, despite playing mainly at Challenger/ITF levels, demonstrates a strong win record over the past year and superior return stats. His results against less-ranked opponents and his ability to edge through deciding sets could play a crucial role.

Considering the comparative strengths and recent trends, Arthur Fery is predicted to have a slight edge and is most likely to win the upcoming match, assuming he capitalizes on return opportunities and maintains consistency under pressure.